Colombia Turns Left

Many Latin Americans have lacked security and economic opportunity, pressing them to emigrate here. That may be changing now.

This is an immigration story, we just don’t know it yet.

Colombia, the third most populous Latin American country, and our closest ally there, has elected a new leader, Petro Gustavo, a leftist who appealed to an electorate clearly tired of the status quo. Gustavo is promising to tax land barons and support action on climate change by curtailing the export of coal and oil. These are bold and risky moves considering Colombia relies on fossil fuels for nearly half its export income.

The election represents generational change. Gustavo, a former guerilla, is eyed suspiciously by older, more conservative voters, and championed by the young, who are fed up with the top-down spoils system of that society. And they are not alone. Colombia, like its neighbors, Peru and Chile, have enjoyed decades of Western investment that have benefitted the monied classes at the expense of the poor and disenfranchised, leading to, among other things, the desire to emigrate to the United States—the land of opportunity. Escaping corruption, poverty, and gang violence has motivated Latin Americans for decades.  

The pandemic only made matters worse. The economic troubles it spawned, from unequal medical care to inflation, have young Latin Americans demanding real change from what they perceive as the corrupt officials who have lined their own pockets at the expense of those they supposedly represent.

A fine example of the inherent, rampant corruption, is unfolding right now on two storied Southern California beaches—Coronado and Imperial Beach—that are finding themselves chasing swimmers and surfers off of contaminated beaches. This is because the Tijuana River exits the mainland at the US border, and it is filthy with human waste. The untreated sewage overwhelms an archaic and at-capacity water purification facility on the Mexican side of the border, and prevailing ocean currents carry it north.

The mayor of Imperial Beach, Serge Dedina, who has a masters and a doctorate in geography, cofounded a nonprofit organization called WILDCOAST that is billed as “a voice for the coast and the ocean.” Dedina has led efforts to clean up the sewage that keeps locals and tourists off the beaches from Imperial Beach north to Coronado and San Diego. The beaches, as you can well imagine, are huge economic magnets. Surf shops, apparel shops, hotels and restaurants, all rely on open, pristine beaches for their survival. In little time, closed beaches can equal closed stores and ruined livelihoods. This does not even take into account the environmental damage the sewage causes.

Through Dedina’s advocacy, and that of a number of environmental groups, as well as the local Congressman, Scott Peters (D-Clean Water), a booty of over $300 million dollars, allocated by the last Congress, sits unspent because the Americans closest to the problem don’t trust the money will go where it’s needed and intended. The overarching concern is corruption in Mexico.

Corruption and a total lack of economic opportunity have led the younger voters of Chile, Peru, and now Colombia, to collectively say, enough is enough. They’re instigating once-in-a-generation political change. If successful, it could inspire an end to mass migration from the south. Current political speculation is that Brazil may follow suit in its upcoming elections.

There are admittedly some pretty big “if’s” here. Political change is hard. Power and influence never yield without a fight. Right here at home, the changing demographics of America have emboldened status quo movements, making those with the most to lose willing to sacrifice some of our most closely held values, like equality and free and open elections, on the altar of self-interest.

Simultaneously, Latin America is feeling its oats. Paraphrasing Bloomberg News: President Joe Biden’s attempt to shift focus to the Western Hemisphere has gotten off to a bumpy star. The leader of Mexico snubbed his invitation to the Los Angeles “Summit of the Americas.” The White House billed it as a chance to tackle regional challenges including migration, climate change and economic disparities. Decisions by key Central American leaders to skip the California meetings have highlighted diminished US clout. Attendees signed agreements on migration and other issues that have plagued the region for decades, but the specifics are vague. 

And even if this new youth movement in Latin America succeeds in changing the status quo, the logistics of major change will prove daunting and will take time. First, you have to provide safety and security to a population overrun by crime, cartels, and warlords. Then, you have to build-out modern infrastructure from food and healthcare, to roads and schools, to housing and telecommunications.

We have tried unsuccessfully to motivate change in Latin America. The best recipe will come from within. If home is safe, and if there’s a job, food, and education, there will be no impetus to leave. That’s how a Colombian election becomes an immigration story. 

©2022 Jon Sinton