Not A Layup

Republicans were assured of victory in the House and Senate, but their prospects are diminishing daily between an ex-president who can't face reality, and an extremist base.

The political consultant, James Carville, the “Ragin’ Cajun,” who guided Bill Clinton to two presidential terms is a funny guy who uses humor to make a point. He can be sharp-tongued, or self-deprecating. Carville is married to the top Republican consultant of the Nineties, Mary Matalin, and they used to cross swords pretty publicly, but it was clear the joke was on us.

He tells a story about driving their daughter to dance class. They were late, and he was speeding at a go-directly-to-jail rate. They were pulled over by a Louisiana State Trooper, and in Carville’s telling (to make the point that his wife was smart and ruthless), the Trooper leans in the car window and says to the little girl, “Why didn’t you tell your daddy to slow down?” To which she replied, “Well, sir, Mama says never bother Daddy when he’s been drinking.”

James Carville helped Bill Clinton get elected in 1992 by focusing on the mantra/campaign paradigm, “It’s the economy, stupid.” He knew that all things being equal, Americans vote their pocketbooks.

This year, the Republicans have been licking their chops like a cartoon hobo eyeing a cherry pie cooling on a window sill. It all seemed too easy: Gas was $6.00/gallon, and inflation was climbing to heights not seen in four decades. The House and Senate were theirs for the taking.

The Senate, which appeared to be the low hanging fruit a few months ago, now appears to be a toss-up because the radical candidates—the “Stop The Steal” people—that the Former Guy endorsed got through the primaries but aren’t winning much favor with general election voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Georgia to name a few high-profile races with not-ready-for-primetime players running.

The house, the theory went—based on efficient, if evil, gerrymandering—should be easy for the Republicans to take. Then some funny stuff started happening. First, the Republicans tested the inflation scenario with likely voters. It seemed strong until they decided to see how well their argument that we are suffering through “Joe Biden’s horrible economy” held up in the face of the likely Democratic response that inflation here (8.5%) is lower than the UK (10.1%), or the “Euro Area” (8.9%). Then in July, gas prices started their 60+ day decline. It seems many people recognize the double whammy of Covid-related supply chain issues and the Russian invasion of Ukraine as being global problems for which the American president can’t be blamed. Their economic argument began to unravel (but don’t worry, they’ll still use it).

Then the House Select Committee on January 6th held damaging hearings—some in prime time—and even though Fox News wouldn’t air them, Americans in large numbers watched and were appalled. Mr. Trump doesn’t help his cause by continuing the nonsense about how the 2020 election was stolen from him. The grudge is unbecoming and is producing diminishing returns, but his malignant narcissism renders him unable to change the subject.

For all the “It’s the economy, stupid” campaign planning, a surprise came in the form of the current NBC news poll that finds “threat to democracy“ the top issue facing the country. 21% of our fellow Americans said that they are more concerned about the health of our democracy than economic issues. For instance cost-of-living, which is a gauge on inflation, comes in second at 16% followed by jobs and the economy in general at 14%. Apparently Mr. Carville’s adage needs updating. Rather than the economy, this time it’s the democracy, stupid.

In the same poll, 74% of Americans said that the country is headed in the wrong direction while 58% said that “America’s best days are behind it.“ Direct reflections of the incredibly selfish Former Guy, his minions who parrot his talking points, the many Republican led statehouses that have made laws restricting registration and access to the polls, the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, and Republican state legislatures swiftly removing a woman’s right to choose, with some imposing criminal statutes to boot. The feeling that we are losing hard-won rights is inescapable, and we know who to blame.

When left to the people, look what Kansas did. They rejected a diabolical, if ham-fisted, attempt to change the state’s constitution in favor of those who would force their religious views on the rest of us.

Now, we come to find that Trump has defied the National Archives request that he return classified documents, and not since the August search warrant, but for nearly two years.

This is not what Republicans had in mind going into the midterms. The man who casts the largest presence over the party also casts the largest shadow. 57% of Americans say they want the congressional investigations into the various Trump scandals to continue. 21% of Republicans agree.

It won’t be a Republican layup.

©2022 Jon Sinton