Putin, Ukraine, And The West

Are we seeing an attempt at the rebirth of the Soviet Union or the Czarist Empire?

It appears that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a Dick Cheney-in-Iraq size miscalculation by believing that the Ukrainian people were going to greet his invaders as liberators with rose petal-strewn parades and dance parties in the streets. Instead, they’ve gotten small-arms fire and antitank missiles blowing up their hardware. But, it is still very early, and Putin has held two-thirds of the invasion force back, and has formidable armaments—so far unused—at the ready.

Never mistake the first act for the final curtain.

Meanwhile, thanks to Vlad The Invader, our Western allies are united in ways unthinkable for the past half century. At various times, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and even the UK have strained the Western Alliance. It’s true what they say about a common enemy, for suddenly, we’re all on the same page where Putin is concerned. (All except the Congressional/Fox News Clown Car that favors autocrats over democrats, and Putin over Biden.)

It's especially interesting in light of the fact that the Former Guy spent has spent years denigrating the Western Alliance and assailing our NATO allies in the bargain. Today, Switzerland, of all places, that master of the long-practiced art of neutrality, is on board with sanctions. Sweden too; also a first for this non-NATO ally. Germany has also jumped in with the Ukrainians, and has decided to spend 2% of its GDP on defense, even though that is sure to antagonize Russia where they get a quarter of their energy. They have previously been understandably reluctant to abandon the proposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia, but today they’ve picked democratic sovereignty over their own energy needs. Spain, France, Italy, and the entire EU, are all united for the first time in many years.

Thanks again, Vlad.

It was fascinating last weekend to watch the Former Guy at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Florida (because, Florida) trying to have it both ways: calling Putin “a genius” for his dastardly ruse that Ukraine is not a sovereign entity, but one that belongs to, and is currently threatening Russia, giving him rationale for invading. And at the same time, expressing his admiration for the gutsy Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy; the same leader he threatened with a stoppage of shipments of defensive weapons should Zelenskyy refuse to say incriminating things about Joe Biden during the presidential campaign. As you’ll recall, he got no satisfaction, got impeached for his trouble, and then made sure we slow-walked the weapons that had already been committed.

So while Fox News’s Tucker Carlson was going all in on the question of why we love Ukraine and not Putin, and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Mars) and the rest of the Clown Caucus in DC were shouting their barbarous insults at President Biden, who, not incidentally, messed up Putin’s invasion by widely releasing detailed, credible intelligence about where and when it was coming, and rallied the very allies in Western Europe that Trump had purposely alienated, The Donald was hedging his bet at the CPAC gathering, catching his sycophantic media hounds and electeds off guard. Showing for the millionth time that loyalty to him is a one-way street.

Trump, his former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Carlson are all on a loop on Russian television, praising Putin, with Carlson wondering why we’d side with a fledgling democracy over an autocracy, and Pompeo genuflecting to the dictator, calling him “savvy” and talking about how much he respects him, while blaming Biden for Putin’s war.

Praise is coming to Joe Biden from unexpected quarters for the way he has so far dealt with the crisis, particularly in light of his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. He’s pulled the Western Alliance back together, and in the process, shut down much of Putin’s propaganda about Russia’s “defensive” posture. Even former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, himself no Biden fan, has gone out of his way to praise the President.

But, the more success the Ukrainians have, the more desperate Putin could become. Backing him into a corner could prove very dangerous for Ukraine and Europe at large.  This appears to be what’s kept Israel and India from joining Western Allies in support of Ukraine and in opposition to Russia. That is more than a little disappointing.

If backed into that corner, will Putin relent and display common sense, or will he resort to committing the same horrendous war crimes in Ukraine as he did in Syria where he launched massive attacks against civilian populations. Ultimately, the question is whether Vlad the Invader becomes Vlad the Impaler, and engages in the wholesale slaughter of Ukrainian civilians. The world would be a better off if, in the parlance of non-inhaler Bill Clinton, the president of Russia became Vlad the Inhaler.

©2022 Jon Sinton